Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.1 miles South-West of La Jolla
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.1 miles South-West of La Jolla
32.7257°N, 117.4133°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of April 2026
Apr 27, 2026 05:55:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
82.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.33
Predicted M2.53 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
21.9 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 14.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0b96b6a0cec61c5c25d959786d1f197e2174e47545c9e3204b6c668db16b6318
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-32.73--117.41-20260427T0555
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.