Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
12.2 miles North-West of Knights Landing
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles North-West of Knights Landing
38.9518°N, 121.8329°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 16:04:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
18.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e8c4ef40da7004ac73f88cd03e4cd6e99559bab925991906d9f9416a3f432530
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-38.95--121.83-20260428T1604
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.