Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
12.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.8 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2744°N, 119.0584°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 05:31:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.93
Predicted M4.43 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d09098d012333be86b38eb6f21e1712ad9c930c2b3fdac320612e34294cef886
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-39.27--119.06-20260428T0531
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.