Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
11.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2720°N, 119.1119°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 23:55:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
130h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
807afdd2e2121e69350713426e87b56cd755b3b13e4726c02ab1335566520d3c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-39.27--119.11-20260502T2355
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.