Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3180°N, 119.1433°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 18:21:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
125h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
8.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.53 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
78e0144cf04c8fd9ae63de3f73a830aaa762b3cf036b01e4314bfe170a76b787
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-39.32--119.14-20260502T1821
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.