Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
52.3 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
52.3 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3566°N, 124.9690°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of May 2026
May 02, 2026 21:19:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
128h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
34.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
43.3 h
7.3 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 9.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
607eb13f59fce8545024b0b726e6915d6b566d5668d07a6a2c7e1021873819c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_060346_pred-40.36--124.97-20260502T2119
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 13:03:49 PST
Source Batch
20260427_060346_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:10.035080+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.