Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
14.3 miles South of Tecopa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.3 miles South of Tecopa
35.6592°N, 116.1535°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 19:52:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
509h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
154.6 km
54.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M2.84 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0041dc7dcf74d26b5fb2584944e60b6d0166b21c8f6e9fa152496c6cc68b05bb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-35.66--116.15-20260518T1952
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.