Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
4.5 miles South-East of San Ardo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.5 miles South-East of San Ardo
35.9765°N, 120.8481°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of June 2026
Jun 04, 2026 14:40:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
911h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
104.5 km
4.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.4 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5eef9a1dee14ea8dec4d8349f910a7dab3ca674e4801fbdcc7c73ba4c146ca86
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-35.98--120.85-20260604T1440
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.