Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
4.7 miles North-West of Candelaria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North-West of Candelaria
38.1079°N, 118.0462°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 01:35:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
514h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.4 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7d5e374ed2ddda0a16f99e7765b6f9daff8cd36df67a28769e62d0ac6c6dbd6f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.11--118.05-20260519T0135
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.