Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
21.1 miles North of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.1 miles North of Warm Springs
38.4751°N, 116.5009°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 18:02:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
531h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
11.9 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 3.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2497cb81dc9553dc3c037df5866abb4bd722592f5d3af01b2975323b87793996
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.48--116.50-20260519T1802
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.