Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
17.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.7822°N, 123.9774°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 18:18:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
507h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
163.9 km
63.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M3.26 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
2.9 km
Pred. 2.0 km vs actual 0.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b9076a59da78efe7c4b185ed1691cb29c613701c447061e03290281b9cf5451
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.78--123.98-20260518T1818
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.