Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
8.8 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8192°N, 122.7996°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of June 2026
Jun 09, 2026 10:30:42 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1027h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
2.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.09
Predicted M3.59 vs actual M2.5
- 0.09 over limit
Depth Error
10.4 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c12df976c0bc25516e3e663bc64aa2bcf7bf6bb8d008b89572e46ca5dc80db1f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.82--122.80-20260609T1030
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.