Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.6 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8429°N, 122.8186°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 02:12:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
419h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
10.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.71
Predicted M3.21 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
8.2 km
Pred. 3.2 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1b0104399b375be177398713fabba7f50afc9717beb1fc859c0caa4d3bc92f99
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-38.84--122.82-20260515T0212
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.