Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
11.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2868°N, 119.0830°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 23:12:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
416h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M3.31 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dc4c09b4102f60202036e682c54dd6ccbbadfc2ab64020454e53b8eb7746ad4d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-39.29--119.08-20260514T2312
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.