Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.1
28.7 miles West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.7 miles West of Eureka NV
39.3757°N, 116.4701°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 03:24:11 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
468h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
207.8 km
107.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.18
Predicted M4.08 vs actual M2.9
- 0.18 over limit
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5c117a18f1d319c915a32777a395868914ca1792e7f3484efe37117e3e203f4d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-39.38--116.47-20260517T0324
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.