Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
7.0 miles South-East of Paynes Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.0 miles South-East of Paynes Creek
40.2746°N, 121.9606°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 16:24:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
361h 35m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
178.4 km
78.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9788a3f1f2ae80d766358ca1d060bb040a05afbd1b71fd40b01bb1de9d2bd2df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-40.27--121.96-20260512T1624
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.