Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
42.1 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
42.1 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3494°N, 124.6998°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of June 2026
Jun 10, 2026 10:20:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1051h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M3.37 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
15.2 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 9.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a03c31f13c479834529704231e772fc716e6ea41e42dae3507d876c39f3db256
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-40.35--124.70-20260610T1020
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.