Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
1.1 miles South of Callahan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles South of Callahan
41.2947°N, 122.8042°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 05:10:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
518h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
148.5 km
48.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
34.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.23 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
34.5 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 30.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80616d5e3aff1ec8f4f1b3ca3681ce849c86991ae5166c26c4887e57077afb9f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_074934_pred-41.29--122.80-20260519T0510
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 14:49:37 PST
Source Batch
20260427_074934_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:11.398525+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.