Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
11.6 miles South-East of Ocotillo Wells
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles South-East of Ocotillo Wells
33.0163°N, 116.0210°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of September 2024
Sep 28, 2024 03:00:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
130.7 km
30.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.12
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.6
- 1.12 over limit
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 18.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d3c6e68923dbe7354b45baa5ae090a6db070cac23ff8343487fec986649edf99
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-33.02--116.02-20240928T0300
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.