Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
1.4 miles West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.4 miles West of Ojai
34.4484°N, 119.2680°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of May 2023
May 21, 2023 11:08:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
346.9 km
246.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M4.2
Depth Error
18.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1e1115a8cd6d33e84b1f26299eb23f8c8e25887640bc4f776b3e2b9a6cd2a41f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-34.45--119.27-20230521T1108
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.