Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
8.3 miles East of Brown
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.3 miles East of Brown
35.8396°N, 117.7347°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of January 2023
Jan 03, 2023 04:01:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
70.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.68
Predicted M5.28 vs actual M2.6
- 1.68 over limit
Depth Error
13.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b9dc0f97df4ab62d31bc32d7025ed2b34c311b56e79eb2634b752427c39d6e67
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-35.84--117.73-20230103T0401
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.