Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
6.2 miles East of Brown
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.2 miles East of Brown
35.8406°N, 117.7735°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of December 2022
Dec 23, 2022 21:04:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
10.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
47.1 h
11.1 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
2.40
Predicted M4.7 vs actual M2.3
- 1.40 over limit
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 8.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3ac355667664905c659d9a4f8e2c3ff1d0e4c75891b10de50fe7e3eb1b40d097
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-35.84--117.77-20221223T2104
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.