Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.8
5561.4 miles North-East of Wendover
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5561.4 miles North-East of Wendover
38.0533°N, 0.6274°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of November 2024
Nov 09, 2024 14:04:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
93.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.88
Predicted M4.78 vs actual M1.9
- 1.88 over limit
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 9.0 km vs actual 0.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
54a9cc37ebe4d5da0db695fa523eeae6a91121e5609e3ece376d79650949adee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-38.05--0.63-20241109T1404
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.