Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
6.4 miles North of Basalt Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.4 miles North of Basalt Junction
38.1378°N, 117.9292°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of November 2024
Nov 07, 2024 14:43:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
4.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
3.23
Predicted M5.43 vs actual M2.2
- 2.23 over limit
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 9.9 km vs actual 8.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8554a9b66cd92beba72c9caf1c234b5f933c9c3d258ddd37b3b5eb6e2cea543b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-38.14--117.93-20241107T1443
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.