Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
1.5 miles West of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.5 miles West of Chester
40.3061°N, 121.2585°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of March 2023
Mar 10, 2023 05:48:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M5.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
93.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
3.20
Predicted M5.4 vs actual M2.2
- 2.20 over limit
Depth Error
9.8 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
550b76bdc68530d1fe01255ae044ba3b0f56ab180c2a553ba92c7ac19e75391b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-40.31--121.26-20230310T0548
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.