Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.8
18.9 miles North-West of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.9 miles North-West of Lovelock
40.3363°N, 118.7686°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of April 2024
Apr 07, 2024 18:48:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
83.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
39.9 h
3.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
2.00
Predicted M4.8 vs actual M2.8
- 1.00 over limit
Depth Error
18.0 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
495c8e2660b8b4ee02e614fddfe7b595ede1dc0aab4e901a97a554057fed5800
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_083450_pred-40.34--118.77-20240407T1848
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 15:34:53 PST
Source Batch
20260427_083450_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:13.945195+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.