Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
2.3 miles South-West of Olancha
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.3 miles South-West of Olancha
36.2513°N, 118.0225°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 00:30:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
150h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
34.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
43.7 h
7.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M2.39 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1971aaa1753b482e0553a346d5230996e77154bf4e1d2cc6ec8bc6180ad398cc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-36.25--118.02-20260504T0030
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.