Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
18.1 miles South-West of Fresno
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.1 miles South-West of Fresno
36.6060°N, 120.0691°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 19:37:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
146h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
99.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.18 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 5.8 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b485407acdc056c0315653012a469b536844bdf1884bcdb9fcfecec030a2c5c3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-36.61--120.07-20260503T1937
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.