Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
77.0 miles South-West of Gualala
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
77.0 miles South-West of Gualala
37.7829°N, 124.2014°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 20:08:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
26h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
210.7 km
110.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
30.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
26.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 20.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a9c42dfb32dcaadf432f213f3fb61df2e134359b46d3029e8da404d548ade5d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-37.78--124.20-20260428T2008
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.