Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.5 miles North-West of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.5 miles North-West of Belmont NV
38.6642°N, 116.9160°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 21:03:22 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
99h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
42.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
27.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
6.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
10359ef385751a3082daad08ae32aae40e88d04c8cbc079892f16ec573cf7269
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-38.66--116.92-20260501T2103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.