Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
2.7 miles North-East of Markleeville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles North-East of Markleeville
38.7289°N, 119.7606°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 20:52:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
83.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a398aee614ac3767f606a3a575ce625494e165fd6024c55ecb5b666dbedb1704
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-38.73--119.76-20260428T2052
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.