Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
9.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.4 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8457°N, 122.8336°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 22:48:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
101h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
21.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
11.6 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
67c003edb3156b93ef4e26b912d4610ae1ebf7cc0f591eec48a5946eb08259ec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-38.85--122.83-20260501T2248
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.