Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
36.5 miles North-West of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.5 miles North-West of Austin
39.9309°N, 117.4585°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 05:28:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
83h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
147.2 km
47.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.03
Predicted M2.13 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fa2d9de7f6ef561b21aeff372b2bf091ae8213db9a0a1b0d81e6b933a9c44668
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-39.93--117.46-20260501T0528
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.