Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
25.3 miles North-East of Fernley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.3 miles North-East of Fernley
39.9444°N, 119.0618°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of April 2026
Apr 28, 2026 11:38:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
74.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 7.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0cae37b833081d7797c92d2ee5b7f467bb96c64f30021789ab1ab7b8e62d2e83
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_103337_pred-39.94--119.06-20260428T1138
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 17:33:40 PST
Source Batch
20260427_103337_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:15.044587+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.