Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
6.7 miles South-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.7 miles South-East of Bridgeport
38.2053°N, 119.1263°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 04:38:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
537h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
65.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.60
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.1
- 0.60 over limit
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 3.8 km vs actual 6.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4a117f2e55d89592cd0ccf2b2ea543e3f575083605ef881be97807ed98949368
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-38.21--119.13-20260520T0438
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.