Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
7.8 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.8 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.4525°N, 116.9718°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 21:30:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
506h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
38.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.19
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.0
- 0.19 over limit
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 7.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b02b854518def83b7631795523b9888f4c38f8f443ce900ed5eaad755b5c2e0d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-38.45--116.97-20260518T2130
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.