Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.9 miles South-East of Gabbs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.9 miles South-East of Gabbs
38.7959°N, 117.8625°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 04:47:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
513h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
68.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
37.5 h
1.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 1.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7176b30c00ac328b548a922c38da13654d9884f826ceafdc19840bcb9e98a1c5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-38.80--117.86-20260519T0447
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.