Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
8.1 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.8044°N, 122.7982°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of June 2026
Jun 11, 2026 00:47:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1061h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
4.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
46.7 h
10.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
82a161b9b4d9874d6ad25123017370f2573e82cf0851922b6bba10d23f877464
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-38.80--122.80-20260611T0047
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.