Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3005°N, 119.1048°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of May 2026
May 15, 2026 09:29:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
422h 12m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M3.17 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 10.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
54d8037ce86f62d08891664ff517c42cda3d857e6f77fe653169a6a2f92e4f9b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-39.30--119.10-20260515T0929
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.