Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.9 miles South-East of Paynes Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.9 miles South-East of Paynes Creek
40.2275°N, 121.9528°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of May 2026
May 13, 2026 15:06:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
379h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
173.6 km
73.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
19.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.02 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
6.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
53dc1fb37ee422e55a5b174d7a3125bb85520014f1729447343edd2542ea0835
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_121653_pred-40.23--121.95-20260513T1506
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:16:56 PST
Source Batch
20260427_121653_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:16.464058+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.