Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
0.9 miles North-West of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.9 miles North-West of Ojai
34.4545°N, 119.2573°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 19:17:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2327h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
51.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.32
Predicted M4.72 vs actual M2.4
- 1.32 over limit
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 11.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2e09370de0668794021fc7425bdb98d12db8fc5055ef938de4d4dbb158f0cc41
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_125914_pred-34.45--119.26-20260802T1917
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:59:17 PST
Source Batch
20260427_125914_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:17.908988+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.