Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
31.9 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
31.9 miles South-West of Eureka
40.4114°N, 124.4863°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 09:30:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2293h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
22.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
2.31
Predicted M4.61 vs actual M2.3
- 1.31 over limit
Depth Error
29.2 km
Pred. 8.3 km vs actual 20.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
06b9a5a28a2dd54c256d3d96cadadc9f35d3e24010620433cc28fced2304c3eb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_125914_pred-40.41--124.49-20260801T0930
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 19:59:17 PST
Source Batch
20260427_125914_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:17.908988+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.