Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
100.5 miles South-West of Malibu
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
100.5 miles South-West of Malibu
32.7090°N, 119.5208°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 22:48:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
144h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
197.8 km
97.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
25.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c7143e02d5b2138eca13fe3752ef8b9cba3d90c2806b7ce1223a01381bb254e5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-32.71--119.52-20260503T2248
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.