Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
15.4 miles North-East of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles North-East of Soledad
36.5860°N, 121.1338°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 00:28:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
146h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
11e1e2e28ba4827b2cc42188e7b19cc45752ce110fb2cf3e1d812ffe2920da00
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-36.59--121.13-20260504T0028
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.