Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
1.3 miles North-West of Santa Clara
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.3 miles North-West of Santa Clara
37.3702°N, 121.9680°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of May 2026
May 01, 2026 06:23:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
80h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
32.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 7.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
58e67152ff8b4b9428c021bc844f709bc8e7d5533b5663be6d00b8d48a1f9bbd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-37.37--121.97-20260501T0623
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.