Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.6 miles South of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.6 miles South of Convict Lake
37.5238°N, 118.8704°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of May 2026
May 03, 2026 20:42:07 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
11.4 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 4.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
99498422c17a593f0f2eb6fde5c0472cfd7101e9b924bbbb4b33a5184c8b88c6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-37.52--118.87-20260503T2042
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.