Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.1 miles South-East of Gabbs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.1 miles South-East of Gabbs
38.7339°N, 117.8058°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of April 2026
Apr 29, 2026 05:14:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
126.3 km
26.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.20
Predicted M2.2 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 2.7 km vs actual 7.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
89267ca103ec9ea2e642502f6c19093a4aed81a8b2061eff489735db7f40d349
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-38.73--117.81-20260429T0514
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.