Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
32.5 miles North-West of Gabbs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.5 miles North-West of Gabbs
39.3036°N, 118.1522°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 17:09:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
162h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
74.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fc3f00745f4c7d8b1e54c53c61930c141cb63148db6a6158280f6ac6264157bd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-39.30--118.15-20260504T1709
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.