Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
9.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.0 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3042°N, 119.1182°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of April 2026
Apr 30, 2026 21:59:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
71h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.48 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 8.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5b22922ffd84527ffc4b6cda42ad5801d470c6f96aac1f85d577cc1bc4260571
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-39.30--119.12-20260430T2159
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.