Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
5.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.3363°N, 119.1770°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of May 2026
May 04, 2026 02:46:44 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
148h 31m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
9.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M2.42 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.8 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 9.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ef0a27ef1a8688ff0cdc551e982b0a253c18bcc2919a7d315b295b438aabc73
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260427_151456_pred-39.34--119.18-20260504T0246
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Apr 27, 2026 22:14:59 PST
Source Batch
20260427_151456_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:48:18.995454+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.